Financial Energy Review
OPEC cut its forecasts for oil demand growth this year and next on Wednesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions in the producer group’s fifth consecutive downward revision.
The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia. OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
In a monthly report, OPEC said it expects 2024 global oil demand to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.82 million bpd last month. OPEC had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
“The bulk of this revision is made in the third quarter, taking into account recently received bearish data for the third quarter,” OPEC said in the report.
China accounted for part of the latest downgrade, as did India, other Asian countries, the Middle East and Africa, OPEC said. Chinese oil demand in October contracted by 81,000 bpd year on year, OPEC said.
OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to 1.45 million bpd from 1.54 million bpd.
Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.
Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world’s switch to cleaner fuels.
OPEC’s outlook remains towards the top of industry estimates and contrasts with the International Energy Agency’s far lower view.
The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 920,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday
