Financial Energy Review
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has pegged total direct remittances for 2022 at $2.16 billion, a decline of 11.18 per cent from the previous year.
The apex bank in its “International payment” data disclosed that the country recorded $2.43billion in total direct remittances in 2021, amounting to 11.18 per cent decline when compared to 2022 remittances.
A breakdown showed that Nigeria recorded $130,115,888.7 remittances in January 2022, February was slightly elevated at $132,110,312.6, March was again elevated at $203,794,664.3 with a total for the first quarter pegged at $466,020,865.5.
Also, the month of April saw inflows of $165,771,432.3, May at $184,644,196.8 and the month of June, which saw the highest inflow for 2022 pegged at $394,546,934.47 totally the second quarter inflows to $744,962,563.6.
The third quarter started with $ 196,664,820.4 for the month of July while August saw $309,834,560.8 and September saw the lowest inflow in the year at with $100,083,873.1 in direct remittances.
Furthermore, October recorded $110,778,558.7, November $124,668,760.4 and December with a decline to $102,577,897.5.
However, being that total direct remittance is a fraction of all inflows into Nigeria which excludes the heightened activities resulting from RT200, the World Bank had last month forecasted that foreign remittance into Nigeria is estimated to hit $20.9 billion by the end of 2022, compared to $19.5 billion in remittances inflow recorded in 2021.
The report released in the fourth quarter of 2022 titled, “Remittances Brave Global Headwinds Special Focus: Climate Migration,” stated that it represents a 7.5 per cent rise from the prior year of 2021.
The report stated: “Nigeria, the largest recipient of remittances in the region, which witnessed a sharp recovery in flows during 2021 a 13.2 per cent, maintained the improved momentum of 2021 into to the first quarter of 2022. However, growth fell in Q2 data to 0.5 percent vis-à-vis the same period of 2021. Moreover, the country is reaping little benefit from the surge in crude oil prices, while the expatriate community faces real income losses in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Euro Area. A falloff in remittance flows to growth of 7.5 percent is likely for 2022.”
Furthermore, the report noted that the remittance outlook cites that the risk of further adverse developments in the external environment will persist through 2023, “and act to lower the pace of remittance flows to Africa to 3.9 per cent. Price pressures for wheat, oil, and fertilizers are likely to continue into 2023, although ebbing from peaks of the previous year.
“Food affordability and deterioration of real incomes across African states will place a damper on economic growth, while government spending on subsidies and support for farmers will widen fiscal gaps. Little easing of current account deficits is seen given continuing adjustment to the large terms of trade changes of 2022. And depreciating currencies against the US dollar will magnify the rise in import prices measured in local currency.”
“Remittance outturns will depend on the balancing of increasing needs for support from the African overseas labor force, and the availability of incomes in host countries to be remitted. Real wages are now declining in the United States and the euro area, indicating the likelihood of softening remittance flows. For larger countries, Nigeria is anticipated to see continued moderation in flows to a 4.5 per cent pace in 2023. Kenya should experience a modest slowing to gains of 5.5 per cent,” the report stated.
